Analysis of the Relationship between Climate Change and Extreme Rainfall Events Influencing Flooding in Songkhla Province

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the relationship between climate change factors and rainfall patterns influencing flooding in Songkhla Province. The study utilizes a 20-year dataset (2003–2022) of rainfall from the Southern Meteorological Center (East Coast), specifically during the monsoon months of October to December. The analysis identifies 8 El Niño years, 11 La Niña years, and 1 neutral year within the study period. Findings reveal that years with total rainfall exceeding the mean threshold of 1,500 mm predominantly coincided with La Niña events (10 out of 11 years). Furthermore, an investigation of extreme daily precipitation—defined as rainfall exceeding 200 mm, a primary driver of flooding—identified 11 occurrences, 10 of which were strictly associated with La Niña cycles. These results conclusively demonstrate that rainfall variability and flood risks in Songkhla are heavily driven by the La Niña phenomenon, reflecting the localized impacts of global climatic shifts.